Poland: Political Outlook
Key Takeaways:
Poland has seen an upturn in political engagement in its recent general election, with high voter turnout from previously underrepresented demographics challenging the incumbent PiS party.
Despite PiS’ initial opportunity to form a government, it appears unable to garner enough support to win a parliamentary confidence vote set for December 11th.
Donald Tusk’s coalition of opposition parties has made significant headway in presenting an alternative to the PiS government, with the opportunity to form their own government should PiS lose the confidence vote.
Ongoing tensions, early conflicts within the coalition, and strategic moves by PiS to regain control indicate a potentially volatile political environment, with power struggles and potential shifts in leadership on the horizon.
On October 15th 2023, Poland witnessed a significant resurgence in democratic and civic engagement. Despite initial scepticism, the election saw a remarkable 74% voter turnout. This marked the highest participation rate since 1989, with a historic increase in women and young voters, challenging the Law and Justice Party's (PiS) monopoly of power. A record 71% of voters aged 18-29 participated, up from 46% in 2019. Notably, this election marked the first-time female voters outnumbered their male counterparts in Poland. These trends are indicative of a considerable reduction in voter apathy, underscoring Poland's steadfast commitment to democratic participation and a collective vision for a more pro-EU future.
The Situation
Despite record voter turnout, Poland remains a polarised society. No major party secured a majority, leading to an ongoing electoral stress test. President Duda has initiated the process of opening the newly elected parliament by giving the incumbent party, PiS, the first chance of forming a coalition. Headed by PM Morawiecki, the leader has until December 11th to convince parliament to officially vote his administration into office. Should that effort be unsuccessful, the government will not secure legitimacy to govern for the upcoming term, leading MPs to select a new candidate for the position of PM. PiS aims to rally support from opposing parties for the formation of a new technocratic government, aiming to dispel any prior allegations of the party neglecting the rule of law. Traditionally, the President invites the party with the largest vote-share to form a government, in this case PiS at 35.4%, despite exceptions being allowed if government formation seems unlikely. Duda's decision to delay Tusk's coalition prospects was met with disapproval. The newly appointed Speaker of the House, Szymon Holownia, accused Duda and PiS of orchestrating a 'theatrical' scenario, completely disconnected from the principles of civilised democracy.
In PiS’ technocratic government, nine of the sixteen ministries are headed by women, with some ministers having no previous or longstanding political background. This representation reflects the unprecedented number of women and young voters who voted against them in the election. Meanwhile, Tusk and his coalition partners have already ratified and made public their coalition agreement. The agreement includes ambitious commitments to reverse judicial reforms, release frozen EU funds, revoke the near-total abortion ban, depoliticise public media, and separate church and state. This makes it the first publicly disclosed coalition agreement in history, strengthening the likelihood of a unified government among the three parties. Nevertheless, certain MPs from the Third Way political alliance have clarified that they will not officially endorse this partnership because it lacks detailed assurances regarding its policy priorities.
Scenarios
Tusk's Civic Coalition (CO) will likely take control of the government by January. Despite Morawiecki's efforts to form a broad and moderate 'Coalition for Polish Affairs,' he encountered setbacks as all potential political partners, including the far-right Confederation party, declined the invitation to engage in coalition talks. If the PiS party do not gain the support of the Sejm, then the CO would likely be able to form a government before the New Year. However, this will depend on the success of the coalition parties in establishing a clear set of policy priorities that align with Tusk's vision. Several negotiations and mutual understandings must be agreed to establish a durable coalition partnership capable of enduring the entire term. This partnership must also be able to navigate PiS's strong opposition presence, wielding influence in both parliament and the executive branch through President Duda. Duda retains control of the executive branch until 2025, with the authority to veto or block legislation proposed by Tusk’s new democratic coalition. Consequently, while Tusk's government is bound to command the parliament, it may lack the necessary power and numbers to block any veto from Duda, which requires a 3/5 parliamentary majority to override.
It is crucial for Tusk to establish a unified and stable ministerial base, upon which it can challenge the shortcomings of Duda’s PiS. Duda mentioned in a press conference his commitment to respecting constitutional norms and election outcomes, yet he hinted at his support for the concerns of PiS supporters in response to legislative proposals by the new Tusk administration. This follows PiS chair Jaroslaw Kaczynski's labelling of Tusk as 'the personification of evil', accusing him of betraying the Polish cause and Republic.
Should Duda or PiS continue to express opposition to Tusk as PM, both the President and the Democratic opposition might opt for flexibility, potentially leading to discussions about a coalition involving Rafal Trzaskowski, the current Mayor of Warsaw, taking the role of Prime Minister. Whilst quite unlikely, these rumours do emphasise the fragility of the situation. Trzaskowski, as a popular and respected figure in Polish politics, would significantly ease the tensions of the new parliament and bring a sense of duty and stability to the legislature. With Duda's term concluding in 2023, he may adopt a more conciliatory approach to sustain his political career in Poland and, importantly, on the international stage.
What discussions are taking place?
While the chances of PiS forming a sustainable government are slim, Tusk’s opposition has already laid out key agenda items addressing vital concerns. The first session was also a glimpse into the possible challenges the coalition may face in maintaining unity. The Left (Lewica), a far-left party in Tusk’s government, has submitted two bills to legalise abortion, leading to confusion among coalition partners who haven't reached a unanimous stance on abortion rights. The Third Way, a more conservative partner on abortion rights, expressed its preference to hold a national referendum on the issue. This lack of coherence and transparency among Tusk’s coalition partners has disappointed lawmakers, especially at a critical juncture when presenting a clear political agenda is vital to winning a vote of confidence should Tusk proceed in forming a government in January.
At the Parliament's opening, Duda defended the accomplishments of the departing PiS government and warned of using his veto power against legislation that could potentially reverse the party's key achievements, such as expanded social welfare or alterations to the president's new constitutional powers. This stance comes as a reaction to the Civic Coalition's 100-point electoral program, where they commit to investigating and prosecuting individuals responsible for legal breaches, misuse of public funds, or violation of the constitution in the past 8 years.
In his inaugural address to the lower house, Holownia outlined the parliament's new work direction. As a symbolic gesture of these changes, the long-standing police barriers restricting public access to the parliament building were dismantled, opening the area for the first time in years. The speaker pledged that his role would not be used to block legislation on his party’s behalf but scrutinised for accountability by every delegate in the chamber. However, in the latest attempt to enact a new law relaxing regulations for wind farms, the Civic Coalition introduced last-minute changes to the bill. These modifications drew criticism from other opposition parties, accusing the coalition of compromising their electoral commitment to restore fair legislative procedures. The coalition defended these adjustments as a 'realistic' approach, seeking a compromise in a parliament where the president wields veto powers. This situation has unveiled early tensions within the coalition, highlighting the potential for conflicts in upcoming years.
Meanwhile, the far-right Confederation Party observe that Morawiecki's objective is to lay the groundwork for the upcoming local government and European Parliamentary elections. Despite having no intention of entering a coalition with PiS, the Confederation Party engaged in a two-hour meeting to discuss their demands, expressing concern for Polish drivers and farmers protesting on the Polish-Ukrainian border over grain prices and the rising transportation of illegal goods. Morawiecki’s PiS government has modelled itself to voters as a collaborative partner with the emerging democratic opposition in addressing this crisis. This perceived departure from right-leaning positions might influence Tusk's approach to forming his government, given that PiS will persist in their efforts to attract voters and supporters away from Tusk's administration in the coming years.
The PiS preparations for the 2024 local and European Parliamentary elections began with the party chairman's call for support in arranging a 'Conference of Patriotic Forces' scheduled for January. Although not officially declared, the objective is to counter the gains made by the Civic Coalition in the general election and reintegrate right-wing factions, with speculation about a potential rebranding of the party. There are concerns that the recent formation of the PiS government is a strategy to portray itself as more transparent and cooperative than before. In November 2022, Duda delayed the local elections, which were initially set to coincide with the general election. This strategic decision appears intended to reduce the likelihood of facing a total electoral loss, ensuring the party's ongoing political competitiveness and strength for a potential comeback in the future. Regardless of the polarised parliament, the Sejm's session on November 25th demonstrated both sides being accommodating and constructive on policy matters related to security and trade, aiming to recapture some votes PiS had lost. PiS advocates for a relief package to address the cost-of-living crisis but questions the opposition's reluctance to pass bills proposing zero VAT on food and freezing electricity prices.
Morawiecki and the PiS party are aware that the democratic opposition is still working on a cohesive political agenda, manifesto, and government. PiS has taken advantage of this opportunity to propose a widely supported program among the Polish public, urging the opposition to respond promptly. The opposition’s failure to endorse these bills would serve as a demonstration, by PiS, of the coalition's inability to uphold its pledge to maintain a functioning multi-party parliament. This would tarnish the image of an opposition that vowed to be more legitimate, transparent, and cooperative. Therefore, it is in Tusk’s coalition's best interest to garner the support of the Polish public in the coming weeks, prior to the potential confidence vote they will also face. Naturally, they will also need to present a practical political program that could garner unified and broad cross-party support in the upcoming months and years.