The EU's Dual Challenge: Managing Reform and Expanding Membership
Key takeaways:
The EU faces a dilemma in its plans for growth: expanding its membership to include countries like Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and those in the Western Balkans, and addressing the growing calls for internal reform prior to such enlargement.
The EU’s bureaucratic and complex structure hampers efficient decision-making, risking gridlock and delays in addressing key issues.
Both enlargement and reform have the potential to boost the EU's economic resilience by opening new markets and fostering growth, though how these changes will be implemented remains debated.
Expansion is closely tied to the EU’s strategy to counter Russian influence and stabilise the Western Balkans, influencing its broader geopolitical positioning.
Effective reform and enlargement will depend widespread public backing across member states against the backdrop of rising Euroscepticism and populist sentiments, evident in recent elections.
The EU has long been a symbol of stability, economic prosperity, and political unity in Europe. However, its future hinges on its capacity to reform and expand, and whether it opts to pursue reforms before enlargement. The EU's origins trace back to its six founding members — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands — who established the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1957. Since then, the EU has undergone several rounds of enlargement, with major expansions in 1973, 1981, 1986, 1995, 2004, 2007, and 2013. Each expansion has brought unique challenges and opportunities, including different levels of security risks, economic growth, and political instability. Enlargement, which refers to the process of expanding membership to include additional countries, carries significant economic, security, and geopolitical ramifications. These implications extend beyond the borders of Europe and have far-reaching effects on global power dynamics. In recent years, as the EU has moved to include more member states, its inherent bureaucracy and complex political system have caused repeated gridlocks and hindered cooperation between members. Consequently, rising distrust in EU institutions and among member states has led to numerous calls, both within and outside the Union, for political and economic reforms before further expansion. The EU’s economic and geopolitical potential largely depends on its ability to identify and implement a reform agenda that satisfies all sides of the European political arena. Given the rise in populist votes in the 2024 European Parliament elections, it is prudent to assess whether the EU should prioritise internal reform or enlargement as it works to uphold its future.
Geopolitical Implications of EU Enlargement
1. Stability and Security Concerns
One of the key geopolitical implications of EU enlargement is its role in promoting stability and security across European countries, a goal the Union has pursued for many years, well before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The war in Ukraine has accelerated the push for further EU enlargement and cohesion due to heightened concerns about Russian aggression towards its European neighbours. However, it has also highlighted longstanding divisions among member states, as seen in bilateral disputes between members and candidates.
These disputes, frequently linked to ongoing enlargement discussions, remain prominent in the media, notably due to controversial leaders and politicians. These figures often employ populist rhetoric when discussing the expansion of the EU's boundaries, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán being a prominent example. His Eurosceptic government, often described by mainstream media as populist or quasi-authoritarian, has consistently posed challenges to the EU’s expansion efforts, notably in the case of Ukraine. The outcomes of recent European elections will likely intensify this narrative and increase pressure on the European Parliament to prioritise reducing immigration and support for Ukraine on the policy agenda. However, the limited number of new extreme-right Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) highlights their underperformance in the most recent elections, therefore limiting their influence over this legislative cycle.
2. Concerns about Future EU-Russia Relations
The EU's expansion, particularly into Eastern Europe, has significantly altered its relationship with Russia, resulting in two key geopolitical flashpoints. Firstly, Russia perceives EU expansion into its traditional sphere of influence as a strategic threat, exemplified by the situations in Ukraine and Georgia, where aspirations for closer EU ties have heightened tensions and conflict with Russia. The prospective incorporation of countries like Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia into the EU further challenges Russian influence in the region, creating a complex and often adversarial geopolitical dynamic between Russia and the bloc.
Secondly, the EU’s past and potential future enlargements in Eastern Europe have raised significant concerns in Russia, prompting Putin to exert pressure on Russia’s post-Soviet neighbours. Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently warned that EU enlargement poses economic threats to Russia, particularly as new member states adopt EU technical standards that disadvantage Russian exports. Following the 2024 EU election results, the likelihood of a united diplomatic front against Russian aggression and pressure appears less plausible, as there is a moderate risk of countries and MEPs prioritising domestic policies over international affairs.
3. Economic Concerns and Benefits
Membership of an enlarged EU brings numerous attractive benefits, most notably access to a wider single market, leading to increased trade, investment, and economic growth. For existing EU members, enlargement opens new markets and creates business opportunities, but it also necessitates substantial economic aid and structural funds to help new members meet EU standards. Integrating less developed regions demands significant financial resources and political will, which can strain the EU's budgetary priorities and internal economic policies.
The EU's strategy for integrating the Balkan states differs from its traditional approach through the use of the Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP). This process is designed to promote political and economic stability in these countries as they prepare for potential EU membership. It encompasses financial aid, early access to EU markets, and encouragement of regional cooperation. Recently, the European Commission unveiled a new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, which focuses on further economic reforms and investments to advance accession negotiations. While the strategy aims to enhance stability, strengthen democratic institutions, and stimulate economic growth, it has faced criticism for bureaucratic delays and inconsistent application of membership conditions, which can impact its overall effectiveness.
4. Demographic and Migration Concerns
Enlargement typically results in increased migration flows within the EU, as citizens of new member states gain the right to live and work across the bloc due to its freedom of movement policy. This can have both positive and negative geopolitical implications, particularly if there is a significant flow of legal and illegal migration. On the positive side, legal migration can help address labour shortages and boost economic growth in host countries. Conversely, both legal and illegal migration can lead to social and political tensions, especially if large numbers of migrants put a strain on public services or increase job competition. These dynamics can influence domestic politics within EU countries, often fuelling nationalist and populist movements, as observed during the Brexit negotiations and in countries like France, the Netherlands, Germany, and most recently Poland and Hungary.
These dynamics require the EU to carefully balance the economic benefits of enlargement with the social and political implications of increased migration, ensuring that integration policies address the concerns of both existing and prospective members. This highlights the complex and often contentious application process faced by potential new members, with Turkey's case being particularly notable due to fears that it could lead to the admission of millions of Middle Eastern refugees into the EU upon membership. The relative success of far-right and populist parties in this year’s European elections has signalled a shift towards stricter border controls and a heightened focus on Europe's demographic decline, accompanied by calls for reduced immigration.
5. Impact on Transatlantic Relations
An expanded EU with a larger global presence would strengthen its role as a partner for the US to address global challenges like security, climate change, and trade issues. However, this enlargement might also lead to differing foreign policy approaches, particularly if new member states hold views that diverge from traditional Western European perspectives. Changes in the EU’s composition can affect the balance of power within NATO and other international organisations, potentially altering global geopolitical dynamics. The candidacies of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia have notably strained the EU's diplomatic standing, given their shared historical ties with Russia as part of the USSR nearly 35 years ago.
The EU's pursuit of strategic autonomy seeks to strengthen its ability to act independently in areas such as defence, technology, and economic policy, thereby reducing its dependence on external powers like the US. This initiative reflects the EU's aim to gain greater control over its own affairs amidst a landscape of global uncertainties and shifting alliances. While it underscores the EU's commitment to self-sufficiency and resilience, it also complicates its relationship with the US. Potential conflicts may arise over defence and trade policies where both the EU and US seek dominance. However, this pursuit of strategic autonomy also creates opportunities for a more balanced partnership, allowing the two major powers to collaborate as equals on global issues. Achieving this balance will require astute diplomacy to maintain strong ties with the US while advancing the EU's strategic objectives. This election year is expected to bring significant changes in both European and American policy agendas, influenced by the rise of populist and extremist movements in Europe and the potential re-election of President Trump in the US, which could lead to a resurgence of American isolationism in global affairs.
6. Institutional and Governance Challenges
The addition of new member states requires reforms to the EU's decision-making processes to maintain efficient governance. Balancing the interests of a larger and more diverse membership involves complex negotiations and compromises, which can slow down decision-making and policy implementation. Maintaining cohesion and unity in a further-enlarged EU is an ongoing challenge with significant geopolitical implications for the union's effectiveness on the global stage, particularly in balancing defence, trade, and economic issues both within the bloc and with international allies and partners.
Many political groups within the EU advocate for substantial political and economic reforms before further expanding the Union’s borders. Renew Europe, currently the third-largest bloc in the European Parliament, is a strong centrist advocate for such reforms prior to enlargement. They emphasise the need for robust mechanisms to monitor the reforms and progress of candidate countries to protect "fundamental values and the financial interests of the Union in the context of accession procedures." However, this group experienced significant losses in the most recent elections, with many of its MEPs shifting to populist and extremist parties.
The Case for Reform
The recent EU Parliamentary elections will greatly shape the EU's future as a political and social entity. With a more divided Parliament, there is a need for less bureaucratic and more democratic processes to ensure the Union is held accountable. This shift aims to address the long-standing perception that the EU is disconnected from its electorate and the objectives of their national governments. The EU's lack of political momentum is exacerbating its current problems and weakening its stability. This stagnation has caused member states to lose confidence in the Union, which is often reflected in more nationalistic voting patterns in elections. The rise of populism in Western Europe and growing Euroscepticism in Central and Eastern Europe are creating major challenges for the EU.
A fragmented EU could lead to inconsistent economic policies, slow and cumbersome legislative processes, and increased division, which the current system already struggles to manage. Consequently, reforming the EU is viewed as a priority to effectively address its geopolitical, economic, and security challenges. Efforts are underway to consider constitutional changes to help the EU retain influence on the global stage. These reforms would be a key first step toward creating an adaptable Union that can respond effectively to the needs and sentiments of its citizens and member states, preparing it to face the economic and geopolitical challenges of the next decade.
What are the key reform proposals?
The EU is considering a proposal to establish a more balanced decision-making structure between the European Parliament and the Council. Currently, the EU’s legislative process involves three main institutions: the European Commission, led by President Ursula von der Leyen, which proposes new laws; the European Parliament, where elected members debate and vote on these proposals; and the Council of the European Union, where ministers from each member country vote on them. For a new law to be enacted, both the Parliament and the Council must agree. While the Commission is responsible for proposing new laws, the Council and Parliament negotiate and amend these proposals. The Council does not propose laws on its own but plays a key role in shaping and approving them alongside the Parliament.
Under the proposed reform, the Council of the European Union would be restructured to act more like an executive body, while the European Commission President would be given the new title of ‘President of the Union’. This President would lead a diverse team to represent all regions of the EU. At the same time, the European Parliament would gain more powers, including the ability to propose laws alongside the Commission and have a greater role in selecting the Commission President. This would increase transparency and give the Parliament equal authority with the Council in shaping important policies. The Council would move from requiring unanimous decisions to majority voting on key issues like defence, foreign policy, and finance. This change aims to make the decision-making process more efficient, especially in response to crises such as migration or conflicts like the Russo-Ukrainian war.
The EU currently collaborates with member states on environmental and biodiversity issues, but there are discussions about centralising authority in these areas to better tackle contemporary challenges. There are also proposals to shift more responsibilities in public health, civil protection, industry, and education to the EU, though these areas are typically managed at the national level with EU support. Additionally, discussions are ongoing about increasing EU involvement in energy, foreign affairs, defence, borders, and cross-border infrastructure. This expansion aims to enhance cooperation and address global challenges such as the conflict in Ukraine and international tensions, but it is not yet a universally agreed-upon reform.
Perception and Probability of Reform
The potential for significant EU reform hinges on the cooperation between centrist parties and populist MEPs from the ECR, ID, and other groups in the newly elected EU Parliament. The largest bloc, the European People’s Party (EPP), led by Ursula von der Leyen, will be pivotal, as she continues to serve as President of the European Commission. Her new term will bring a fresh set of challenges that have emerged during the last years of her first presidency. This second term will be marked by a shift in her rhetoric and positions on key issues, becoming less cooperative and more decisive in addressing the geopolitical challenges facing the EU. Her reputation for building consensus across political divides will be key to boost her influence over the coming years, while maintaining a strong centrist position. This approach will be ever more important for appeasing more radical and Eurosceptic figures in crucial areas of EU legislation.
France's political climate is currently at a standstill, with the New Popular Front, Macron’s Renaissance party, and the National Rally all vying for dominance. In Germany, Chancellor Scholz is facing increased opposition due to the rising popularity of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Amid these polarising political challenges, the EU and Ursula von der Leyen will face increased pressure to implement centrist policies across Europe. These shifts in national politics will likely influence the EU's agenda and affect how member states view their EU membership over the next five years. A stronger populist influence could lead to measures addressing these concerns, which would slow or even halt significant EU reforms. In the current climate, the balance of power in EU lawmaking has shifted to the right, moving away from von der Leyen’s previous coalition with the S&D (Socialists and Democrats), EPP (European People’s Party), and Renew Europe. This coalition had worked together to keep radical right-wing parties out of mainstream EU politics and push for deeper integration and reform. With the rise of the ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) and ID (Identity and Democracy) parties, proposed reforms will encounter increased opposition and scrutiny.
In the short to medium term, the EU faces uncertainty due to leadership changes in key member states. Macron's recent call for a snap election and Chancellor Scholz's third-place finish behind the AfD (Alternative for Germany) and CDU (Christian Democratic Union) create challenges for the Union. This situation complicates the EU's ability to navigate policy, as it must operate outside the usual power structures. The new EU parliament may see increased influence from smaller member states like Italy, the Netherlands, and Austria, which have traditionally had less impact. The contentious struggle between radical parties, such as France's National Rally and the New Popular Front, is putting many member countries at odds with the European Union. Populist and far-right parties are reshaping the EU's political landscape – key figures like Giorgia Meloni could play a significant role in the new EU parliament. Unlike Viktor Orbán, Meloni has moderated her views on many issues over the past few years, particularly regarding Ukraine. She has influenced the EU to adopt her perspectives on migration, leading to the 'New Migration Pact' and Ursula von der Leyen’s commitment to increasing security patrols in the Mediterranean. Relations have soured since von der Leyen's election, with Meloni voting against her re-election. This could push Meloni back towards her previous 'Euro-Realist' and Eurosceptic views, less concerned about collaborating with the EU’s centrist parties and more focused on advancing her interests within the broader political arena.
In 2019, EU reform appeared dynamic and hopeful, but the new EU Parliament is expected to slow down these proposals. While enlargement remains a goal, progress will be gradual. Meloni and von der Leyen will be crucial in shaping EU reform, deciding if it will take a more conservative, nation-focused approach or a broader, supranational one. The new EU Parliament will likely seek to balance various political views, which means a temporary halt in strong EU consensus politics.